How India is Fighting Against coronavirus : Epidemic Model

At least two weeks before the new coronavirus pandemic was announced, Indian and international researchers have addressed hypothetical epidemic trends that could break out in four Indian cities, suggesting that the disease’s ability to spread may significantly limit the presence of symptomatic passengers in half. Earlier stages were isolated.

The study, published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research, is based on mathematical models to predict how Covid-19 will spread in Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore and Kolkata.

The newspaper, shared by the Indian Medical Research Council (ICMR) on Monday, takes into account different scenarios and predicts trends in Indian cities.

Optimistic scenario

The optimistic research programme assesses the overall intervention and the absence of interventions in India.

• There is intervention

The document, submitted by ICMR and eight researchers at Imperial University / St. Mary’s Hospital in London on February 27, estimates that if 50% of cases occur, the incidence of the entire coronavirus in a city like Delhi can be The reduction to 62% isolates symptoms at the beginning of the first phase in India.

Studies indicate that if at least 75% of the asymptomatic population is also discovered during this period, the strategy could help delay the country’s outbreak by a considerable amount of time.

Researchers say that with optimistic intervention, the spread of coronavirus will peak in 400 to 800 days, giving the health system enough time to respond.

• No intervention

According to the study, without optimism, the coronavirus may peak around 300 days, with 150 out of 10,000 complaining of symptoms.

Pessimistic scene

• There is intervention

The study states that in pessimistic situations, despite interventions, in a city like Delhi, about 1,000 out of 10,000 people will complain about symptoms in the last 50 days.

Various factors, including delayed discovery, performance issues, and social behavior, can cause this increase.

• No intervention

According to the study, the number of symptomatic cases in cities such as Delhi is expected to exceed 1,000 per 10,000 people in less than 50 days without early intervention.

The study warns that in this case, the healthcare system will be very difficult to treat and save lives.

Diamond Princess Model

Researchers have drawn what they call a diamond princess model to predict an outbreak in a narrow community. Keep in mind that the cruise ship was quarantined off the coast of Japan for nearly a month due to coronavirus on board.

The study’s “Diamond Princess” model depicts a closed-phase scenario, predicting an infection rate of 26% in a crowded community.

He warned that 1 out of every 450 patients may yield. Based on initial global trends, the study estimates that 5% of ill patients in India require intensive care. Half of them may need the help of a mechanical fan. The newspaper reported that in severe cases, one in eight to ten patients could die. He said victims could also occur in 40-50 non-serious Covid-19 cases.

Suggest

Researchers recommend early detection and training of front-line health workers before the outbreak.

He recommends training health workers in the use of personal protective equipment, asymptomatic contact testing, isolation measures and Covid-19 case management. Emergency personnel must obtain health and life insurance against Covid-19.

Researchers suggest establishing a biosafety room during the preparation of the coronavirus. Before the outbreak, they said, resources must be allocated and adequately supplied. The document states that public health measures must be initiated at multiple levels, including but not limited to public information.

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